Thankfully our economy isnt solely based on the housing market. Its stronger then that. But yes, the housing market is a large element to it. The government rakes in a fortune on stamp duty and taxes collected from the building trade.

Its a new phenomenon in the ROI over the last year or so that petrol stations are shutting down all over the place, especially in the city centre to make way for...apartments. Every available land is being converted into apartments.

In my home town a bucket load of apartments were thrown up over the last 3 years or so. Most of them are unoccupied and yet the build continues. The ones that are occupied are occupied by migrant workers... a false economy.

Experts have been predicting a drop in the housing market for years, and it may yet come, however, I think and hope that it will not be the massive crash that everyone is predicting. Hopefully it will just be a slow down. The question is, what effect will it have on the rental market. A lot of people are buying homes for investment purposes. If you cant fill them, then you wont be able to pay the mortgage and people will be forced to sell, thus driving down prices.

I dont think though that it will be the end of the Irish economy either way.

To be honest, its not the short term that im worried about when it comes to the housing market. What im worried about are the long term social problems that will arise in the next 10 years over downright disgracefully planning (or lack of), where housing estates with roads leading out on to already congested routes, where hundreds of houses can be built, with no social facilities such as schools and creches, and also the quality of these living units are of the lowest kind going. Anyone with a mate in the building trade will tell you that.

The construction industry isn't nearly as important for the Irish economy as it used to be; there will inevitably be a downturn here, but it won't cause too many ripples.
Most Irish people would at any rate be prepared to accept such a shock to the economy if it means housing finally becomes affordable again and a man can expect to be able to repay within a lifetime the credit for a phone-box with plumbing.

BTW: I wonder will the anticipation of an economic downturn affect FF's present government negotiation strategy. The last time they cleverly gave PD ministers the Health and Justice portfolios, knowing these would involve unpopular decisions and get a lot of media flak. We saw the result last week.
Bad weather ahead for the economy would now suggest they turn to Labour, offering it a few key posts in economy and finance ministries.

Most Irish people would at any rate be prepared to accept such a shock to the economy if it means housing finally becomes affordable again and a man can expect to be able to repay within a lifetime the credit for a phone-box with plumbing.

Indeed, one could argue that once the downturn begins, it might itself be short-lived because of the queue of people waiting on the downturn to be able to afford property.

As Noel said though, its not the only thing driving the economy.

ATM is slooooowing up again :(

Sorry to say it, but the construction industry is very important to the Irish economy. It accounts for 23% of national output, putting construction's role in the Irish economy at twice the EU's 12% average.

So 'not nearly as important as it used to be' and 'stronger than the housing market' comments might be a little misplaced.

Kloot,

I know, it's horrendous.....I am seriously considering re-locating, my apologies to all but as you can tell, Squarespace have been informed on several occasions and yet the problems persist. It's getting me down as we work so hard to get you good stuff to read (hopefully) and I have this persistant pain which seems unsolvable.

I wouldn't say it is a wobbble David, more a correction.

Kloot,

Fully agree with your points in your first post. Though I do wonder where the Eastern Europeans who do work in the construction sector will go to as the slow down continues.

FMC.

Exactly - all markets will eventually correct themselves, the UK one will do the same. I hope it doesn't affect the overall Irish economy!

David,
I hear there's a lot of construction jobs going in Belfast. It's only a drive away for our surplus.

Just curious, what are the prices per square foot in your housing market and the average home size? In the Austin market we're paying $140.00 to $300.00 psf, with the average home at 2500 - 3000 sq.ft.

Daphne, Austin is high compared to Dallas (in more ways than one!)

We're about $100 per square foot here, since we don't have all the beautiful scenery. 2500 to 3000 sq.ft. is about average.

I would caution our Irish friends about the ripple effects of a housing downturn. I've been through one in Dallas in the 80's and it ain't pretty.

What happens when you can't sell your house b/c you owe the bank more than it's worth? Then your neighbor loses his job and can't sell the house and it's forclosed on, causing the bank to sell it quickly and cheaply, driving down prices further? It ripples through the economy.

Charles,
I went through that same downturn in Houston, half the houses on my street at one point were forclosed. It was pretty scary watching your neighborhood turn into cheap rentals. Austin is the most expensive market in Texas and prices are increasing by 10-15% per year. The taxes are insane too in my little socialist pocket of Texas.

Have a look at the link in the signature

Not a particularly nice area of dublin, 775 square feet, 675,000 euros = 1170 dollers per square feet (at todays exchange rate).

I think people would agree that this is not unrepresentative.

The sooner the whole thing comes crashing down and the bandwagon jumpers lose their shirts the better.