Tuesday
09Sep2008
INDEPENDENCE DAY?
Tuesday, September 9, 2008 at 08:04PM 
I see that John McCain has enjoyed a massive increase in the numbers of independent voters prepared to support him, from 40% pre convention to a stunning 52% post convention.The surge in political independents who favor McCain for president marks the first time since Gallup began tracking voters' general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates. By contrast a mere 37% support Obama. I would have thought this was a critical demographic for both candidates, don't you? Great to see that the Mavericks are showing true grit.
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Reader Comments (24)
Stunning shift for a 50-50 nation!
McCain's up by 2.8 points overall. He's wrapped up Ohio and Florida, I'd say it's looking pretty good for the GOP.
The only good news, and it is good news, is that Obama has a clear (about 20%) lead in the projected Electoral College outcome.
Actually, I remember one of you explaining patiently to us just about 10 days ago that the lastest fascination with (Obama's) poll results shows an ignorance of the US political system, that the only thing that matters is the Electoral College.
But will that person now own up?
Noel,
Yes, things are looking REAL good for the Obamessiah, a stroll in the park, right?
I'd say it's looking pretty good for the GOP.
I'd say it's in the bag, barring some GOP campaign disaster.
When Bush won in 2004, there was no way I could forsee the Dems winning the White House any time soon. That remains my view.
It's not a matter of who the Dem candidate is. I don't think the polls would be much different if McCain was running against Hillary. There is a small but crucial majority in favour of a Republican in the White House, at least in terms of those who actually vote. That was clear in 2004 and we will see it again in 2008.
Is the economy worse or better since then though Peter?
Peter,
I'm not so sure McCain would beat Hillary. We might find out in 2012.
If Hillary was running (even as VP) Palin may not have been picked by McCain and the republican bounce may not have come.
I think the Dems are making a huge blunder this week by the way. They are still attacking Palin and talking about abortion, stem cells and creationism.
They should be talking about the economy all day every day. It's their only hope.
Peter -
Maybe the Dums need to try a bit of cunning. Not nominating traitors and commies would help.
We might find out in 2012.
No, in 2012 Palin will beat Hillary easily.
The Dems lost the culture wars in 2004. I'm amazed they think that re-running them in 2008 will help their cause, but whatever they do now, this election is the GOP's to lose. I don't think they will.
Pete Moore
I thought all Dems were commies and traitors in Rightworld's view.
Well, they don't do much to persuade us otherwise.
It is still difficult for McCain in Electoral College battleground States as his own people have noted.
Mahons, any chance of Mccain taking NY. (no Hillary, Upstate ect)
sighned Dreamin' In Tejas
Noel,
"The only good news, and it is good news, is that Obama has a clear (about 20%) lead in the projected Electoral College outcome."
Which projection are you looking at?
Don't forget that a lot of those electoral college projections are based on polls of states which are more or less a coin flip.
Charles: Ronald Reagan did it in 1984. I suppose it is possible.
Jonah Brown backs Barack Obama for US president
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2713150/Gordon-Brown-backs-Barack-Obama-for-US-president.html
Obama had better learn how to flip burgers.
Frank,
CNN gives Obama an around 25% advantage in the electoral college, but some of this may be on old data.
RCP calls it at around 10%.
They also take the toss-up states into account.
The RCP difference was twice as big last time I looked at it. Obviously there's a time lag between nationwide polls and a state-by-state analysis.
Zogby has McCain-Palin ahead by 3.8%
That may be a post-convention bounce. Next week's polls will be more significant, and my guess is the lead will be similar.
"Jonah Brown backs Barack Obama for US president"
How much did McCain pay Brown for that?
Ross, some things are priceless!
Noel,
"They also take the toss-up states into account."
It would be interesting to take the intrade.com data and see what they make of the swing states, and what electoral college outcome that results in. I think it was Ross that said that Arkansas was a swing state - yet intrade rates it something like 90% chance of McCain winning. And if you go to Zogby, their polling shows the vote very close, but they too say it is definitely McCain.
I was thinking of trying to scrape their data into a spreadsheet and see how it comes out but they make it very difficult to do that.
Noel: You are absolutely correct about the electoral college being the only thing that really counts. (doesn't anyone remember that Bush "stole" the election in 2000? because he won the electoral college, not the popular vote.)
I don't think this is a slam dunk for the GOP (as much as I would like to) -- but I do know that McCain LOVES being the underdog, coming from behind -- and this positions seems to really rattle Obama (witness his whining now that he is behind) -- so advantage goes to McCain/Palin.
On the subject of that Brown endorsement I see that the McCain campaign is openly taking the piss out of our much loved Prime Minister.
One of the things I love about this election is waking up in the morning to a new story. Obama's "lipstick on a pig" comment is attracting attention today. Not sure if the pig will fly but it could be a disaster for him if it is taken as insulting Palin.
Is it possible his team didn't think it would be taken as a dig at Sarah Palin? I doubt it. So what the hell were they at? That kind of thing can only lose you votes. It also gives Hillary an opening to disapprove. I wonder will she take it.